Dijon 1-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 4 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon at Stade Gaston-Gérard this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Grenoble have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Grenoble have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Dijon, 1.20 for Grenoble — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Dijon have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Grenoble in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Dijon 2W, Grenoble 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Dijon — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Grenoble — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 51% versus Grenoble 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 52% | Grenoble 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 0.99 xG and Grenoble 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.886 / defence 1.029 | Grenoble attack 1.095 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.005. Data: 63 Dijon games / 63 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 30% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 37%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Grenoble 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 20% | Grenoble 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 30% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Dijon 0.99 / Grenoble 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.886 / def 1.029 | Grenoble attack 1.095 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Grenoble xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Grenoble kick off?
Dijon vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Grenoble?
Dijon 1 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Dijon vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Grenoble part of?
Dijon vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 30% chance of winning, Grenoble a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Dijon and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Grenoble?
Record (3 meetings): Dijon 2W | Draws 1 | Grenoble 0W.
What form are Dijon and Grenoble in?
Dijon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Grenoble (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.89) and Grenoble's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (1.09x) against Dijon's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
30%
3.34
33%
3.05
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.12
1.13
Grenoble xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Dijon and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Dijon and 1.13 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 18W 16D 29L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble's form line: 22W 16D 25L from 63 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Dijon against 1.30 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (12W 8D 11L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 9W 7D 15L from 31 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.90 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 18W 16D 29L in their last 63 games (1.11 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 22W 16D 25L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Grenoble away?
Dijon's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.42 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Dijon or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Grenoble in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Dijon
1
Draws
0
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Grenoble?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 3, Grenoble have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Dijon 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Grenoble?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 42% (Dijon) and 23% (Grenoble) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Dijon) and 32% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Grenoble in 42%; Dijon have failed to score in 36% of games; Grenoble in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Dijon's recent matches and 23% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Dijon's recent games and 32% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Grenoble tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dijon defy the odds to beat Grenoble 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Grenoble 1-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 0.99 xG and Grenoble 1.13 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grenoble landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Grenoble attack 1.09 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 30% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 37%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Dijon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 52%, Grenoble 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Grenoble's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.11 PPG, Grenoble 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.