Concarneau 0-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Concarneau welcome Amiens to Stade Francis-Le Blé. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Concarneau have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Concarneau's home record at Stade Francis-Le Blé: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Amiens — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Amiens's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Concarneau) versus 1.20 (Amiens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Concarneau, 0 for Amiens and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Concarneau in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Amiens in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 39% versus Amiens 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Concarneau 45% | Amiens 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 0.97 xG and Amiens 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 1.018 / defence 1.641 | Amiens attack 0.842 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Data: 31 Concarneau games / 69 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 22% | Draw 27% | Amiens 51%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Amiens 1.96. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Concarneau 70% | Amiens 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 22% | Draw 27% | Amiens 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Concarneau 0.97 / Amiens 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 1.018 / def 1.641 | Amiens attack 0.842 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Amiens (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Amiens xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Amiens kick off?
Concarneau vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Amiens?
Concarneau 0 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Concarneau vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Concarneau vs Amiens part of?
Concarneau vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 22% chance of winning, Amiens a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Concarneau and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Concarneau 0W | Draws 1 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Concarneau and Amiens in?
Concarneau (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Amiens (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Concarneau's attack rating (1.02) and Amiens's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Concarneau's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
22%
4.61
27%
3.64
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.58
1.60
Amiens xG
4.61
22%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
4%
22.88
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 12.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.60 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Concarneau's recent record stands at 9W 6D 16L from 31 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 8L across 31 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Concarneau on 1.06 PPG, Amiens on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Concarneau have managed 4W 3D 8L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Concarneau are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.90 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Amiens in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 9W 6D 16L in their last 31 games (1.06 PPG), while Amiens have gone 10W 13D 8L in their last 31 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Amiens away?
Amiens's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 1.00 PPG; Amiens away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Concarneau or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Concarneau have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Amiens in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
2
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Amiens?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 0, Amiens have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Concarneau 0-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 60%, Amiens 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Concarneau) and 20% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 40%; Concarneau have failed to score in 27% of games; Amiens in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Concarneau's recent matches and 27% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Concarneau vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Concarneau's recent games and 20% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Concarneau and Amiens tend to score early?
Concarneau have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Amiens in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Concarneau's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 32, as Concarneau and Amiens drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 0.97 xG and Amiens 1.60 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Concarneau fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Amiens landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 1.02 / defence 1.64 against Amiens attack 0.84 / defence 0.82, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 22% | Draw 27% | Amiens 51%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 45%, Amiens 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Concarneau 1.06 PPG, Amiens 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.