Clermont Foot 0-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gabriel Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Clermont Foot have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel Montpied this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAU (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, PAU have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Clermont Foot against 0.90 for PAU. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Clermont Foot 0W, PAU 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 57% versus PAU 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 42% | PAU 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.59 xG and PAU 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 1.095 / defence 1.012 | PAU attack 1.252 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.178. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAU have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Clermont Foot games / 60 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 26% | PAU 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | PAU 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 80% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 26% | PAU 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Clermont Foot 1.59 / PAU 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 1.095 / def 1.012 | PAU attack 1.252 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.49
PAU xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs PAU kick off?
Clermont Foot vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs PAU?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 PAU.
Where is Clermont Foot vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs PAU part of?
Clermont Foot vs PAU is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 39% chance of winning, PAU a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Clermont Foot and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and PAU?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 2 | PAU 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and PAU in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. PAU (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 1.09x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.25x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.85
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.08
1.49
PAU xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
7%
13.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.49 for PAU, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 14W 18D 28L from 60 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 21L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.28 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 7W 11D 11L from 29 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 7W 11D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.30 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and PAU in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 14W 18D 28L in their last 60 games (1.00 PPG), while PAU have gone 19W 20D 21L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or PAU away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.10 PPG; PAU away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
2
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, PAU have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 66%, PAU 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Clermont Foot) and 62% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Clermont Foot's games and 62% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 62% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and PAU tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, PAU in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.59 xG and PAU 1.49 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against PAU attack 1.25 / defence 1.27, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 26% | PAU 35%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 42%, PAU 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAU's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG, PAU 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.