Clermont Foot 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Bastia meet at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bastia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Clermont Foot lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Bastia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bastia — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 56% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Clermont Foot 42% | Bastia 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.29 xG and Bastia 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.933 / defence 1.069 | Bastia attack 1.021 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.174. Data: 65 Clermont Foot games / 64 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | Bastia 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Bastia 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | Bastia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Clermont Foot 1.29 / Bastia 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.933 / def 1.069 | Bastia attack 1.021 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bastia xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Bastia kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Bastia part of?
Clermont Foot vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 35% chance of winning, Bastia a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Clermont Foot and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Bastia?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 2 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Bastia in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Bastia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (1.02x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
35%
2.85
30%
3.33
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.57
1.28
Bastia xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.28 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 14W 20D 30L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Bastia's form line: 15W 27D 22L from 64 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.12 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.06 PPG from 31 outings (7W 12D 12L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 3W 14D 14L from 31 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Bastia in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 14W 20D 30L in their last 64 games (0.97 PPG), while Bastia have gone 15W 27D 22L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Bastia away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.06 PPG; Bastia away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Bastia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
3
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Bastia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 64%, Bastia 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Clermont Foot and 26% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 36% of games; Bastia in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 39% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 26% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Bastia tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bastia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Bastia finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.29 xG and Bastia 1.28 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Bastia attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | Bastia 35%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 42%, Bastia 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.97 PPG, Bastia 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.