Caen 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Caen and Auxerre meet at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Caen's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Caen at Stade Michel d'Ornano this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Auxerre have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Auxerre away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Auxerre arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Caen lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 50% versus Auxerre 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 41% | Auxerre 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.33 xG and Auxerre 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.313 / defence 1.100 | Auxerre attack 1.205 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.046. Caen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Auxerre have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Caen games / 34 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 35% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 38%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Auxerre 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Caen 40% | Auxerre 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 35% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Caen 1.33 / Auxerre 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.313 / def 1.100 | Auxerre attack 1.205 / def 1.071 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Auxerre xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Auxerre kick off?
Caen vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Auxerre?
Caen 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Caen vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Auxerre part of?
Caen vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 35% chance of winning, Auxerre a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Caen and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Caen 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Caen and Auxerre in?
Caen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Auxerre (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Caen's attack at 1.31x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.21x) against Caen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.66
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Caen xG
Total xG
2.71
1.39
Auxerre xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Caen and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Caen and 1.39 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Caen have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 12W 10D 12L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Auxerre's form line: 18W 10D 6L from 34 games, 1.88 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Caen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (8W 2D 7L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 9W 6D 2L from 17 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Caen are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.62 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 12W 10D 12L in their last 34 games (1.35 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 18W 10D 6L in their last 34 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.53 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Caen or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Auxerre in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Caen
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Caen have won 0, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Auxerre 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 47%, Auxerre 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Caen) and 47% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Caen's recent matches and 59% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Caen's recent games and 47% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Auxerre tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 35, as Caen and Auxerre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.33 xG and Auxerre 1.39 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.31 / defence 1.10 against Auxerre attack 1.21 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 35% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 38%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 41%, Auxerre 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.