Boulogne vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Annecy travel to to take on Boulogne. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Boulogne — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Boulogne at 0.90 PPG versus Annecy's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Boulogne, 1 for Annecy and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Boulogne in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 49% versus Annecy 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 40% | Annecy 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.02 xG and Annecy 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.807 / defence 0.980 | Annecy attack 0.971 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Boulogne games / 43 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 30% | Draw 29% | Annecy 41%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Annecy 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Boulogne 60% | Annecy 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 30% | Draw 29% | Annecy 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Boulogne 1.02 / Annecy 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.807 / def 0.980 | Annecy attack 0.971 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Annecy (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Annecy xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Annecy kick off?
Boulogne vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 6 November 2026.
What competition is Boulogne vs Annecy part of?
Boulogne vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 30% chance of winning, Annecy a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Boulogne and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): Boulogne 0W | Draws 1 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Boulogne and Annecy in?
Boulogne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boulogne's attack at 0.81x the league average against Annecy's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
30%
3.38
29%
3.39
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.28
1.25
Annecy xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
8%
11.82
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.25 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Boulogne come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 15D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.51 PPG from 43 outings (19W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Boulogne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Boulogne's home form reads 4W 6D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (11W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Boulogne are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.40 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Annecy in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Annecy have gone 19W 8D 16L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.86 PPG; Annecy away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boulogne and Annecy runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Boulogne
1
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Annecy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Boulogne 1-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 62%, Annecy 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Boulogne) and 62% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 33%; Boulogne have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Boulogne's recent matches and 48% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boulogne vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Boulogne's matches and 62% of Annecy's.
Do Boulogne and Annecy tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Annecy in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.