Boulogne 4-2 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade de la Libération to face Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Boulogne (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stade de la Libération this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Amiens have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Boulogne against 0.80 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Boulogne, 0 for Amiens and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Boulogne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Boulogne — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Amiens — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 56% versus Amiens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 52% | Amiens 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.09 xG and Amiens 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.862 / defence 1.410 | Amiens attack 0.872 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.173. Data: 25 Boulogne games / 59 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 27% | Draw 29% | Amiens 44%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Amiens 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 60% | Amiens 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 27% | Draw 29% | Amiens 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Boulogne 1.09 / Amiens 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.862 / def 1.410 | Amiens attack 0.872 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Amiens (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Amiens xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Amiens kick off?
Boulogne vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Amiens?
Boulogne 4 - 2 Amiens.
Where is Boulogne vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Amiens part of?
Boulogne vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 27% chance of winning, Amiens a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Boulogne and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Boulogne 1W | Draws 0 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Boulogne and Amiens in?
Boulogne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Amiens (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Boulogne's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.87x) against Boulogne's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
27%
3.68
29%
3.47
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.53
1.44
Amiens xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
15.54
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.44 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Boulogne come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 6D 13L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 0.96 PPG from 27 outings (7W 5D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Boulogne against 0.96 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Boulogne's home form reads 3W 1D 9L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boulogne are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.19 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Amiens in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Amiens have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Amiens away?
Amiens's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.77 PPG; Amiens away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Boulogne
0
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Amiens?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 2, Amiens have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Boulogne 4-2 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Amiens?
Boulogne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 62%, Amiens 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Boulogne and 54% for Amiens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amiens in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Boulogne's games and 54% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Boulogne's matches and 54% of Amiens's.
Do Boulogne and Amiens tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Amiens in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boulogne cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne beat Amiens 4-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.09 xG and Amiens 1.44 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Boulogne beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.86 / defence 1.41 against Amiens attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 27% | Draw 29% | Amiens 44%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 52%, Amiens 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.11 PPG, Amiens 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.