Bordeaux 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Bordeaux welcome PAU to Stade Matmut-Atlantique. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Matmut-Atlantique. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Bordeaux) versus 1.80 (PAU). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
PAU trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 58% versus PAU 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 58% | PAU 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.17 xG and PAU 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.018 / defence 0.778 | PAU attack 0.916 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.051. Bordeaux's defence rating of 0.778 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 14 Bordeaux games / 52 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 46% | Draw 31% | PAU 24%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | PAU 4.17. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 20% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 46% | Draw 31% | PAU 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Bordeaux 1.17 / PAU 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.018 / def 0.778 | PAU attack 0.916 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.75
PAU xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs PAU kick off?
Bordeaux vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs PAU?
Bordeaux 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Bordeaux vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs PAU part of?
Bordeaux vs PAU is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 46% chance of winning, PAU a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bordeaux and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and PAU in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. PAU (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.26
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
1.92
0.75
PAU xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.75 for PAU, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 14W 16D 22L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 19W 12D 21L from 52 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 1.12 PPG, PAU on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (8W 8D 10L).
On the road, PAU have gone 6W 7D 13L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.06 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and PAU in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 14W 16D 22L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while PAU have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or PAU away?
Bordeaux's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.23 PPG; PAU away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2023, when PAU won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bordeaux's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 2, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Bordeaux 3-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and PAU?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAU see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 54%, PAU 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bordeaux) and 42% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux have failed to score in 31% of games; PAU in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 50% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bordeaux's recent games and 42% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and PAU tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, PAU in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 15, as Bordeaux and PAU drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.17 xG and PAU 0.75 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.02 / defence 0.78 against PAU attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 46% | Draw 31% | PAU 24%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 58%, PAU 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.12 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.