Bastia 1-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bastia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Armand-Césari plays host to Bastia versus Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 3W 7D 0L at Stade Armand-Césari — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand-Césari than their overall form suggests.
Valenciennes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Bastia against 1.10 for Valenciennes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bastia lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Valenciennes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 46% versus Valenciennes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 35% | Valenciennes 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.89 xG and Valenciennes 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.843 / defence 0.862 | Valenciennes attack 0.724 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 0.934. Data: 26 Bastia games / 26 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 41% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 22%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.44 | Draw 2.70 | Valenciennes 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.48. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.48 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Valenciennes's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 26% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Valenciennes 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 41% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 26% | xG Bastia 0.89 / Valenciennes 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.843 / def 0.862 | Valenciennes attack 0.724 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.012 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Bastia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Valenciennes xG
26%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Valenciennes kick off?
Bastia vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Valenciennes?
Bastia 1 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Bastia vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Valenciennes part of?
Bastia vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 41% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 22% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Bastia and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Valenciennes?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 0 | Valenciennes 1W.
What form are Bastia and Valenciennes in?
Bastia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Valenciennes (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.84x the league average against Valenciennes's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.72x) against Bastia's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 24.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.9%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
41%
2.47
37%
2.69
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
20.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.48
0.58
Valenciennes xG
2.47
41%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.78
74%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.9 | 13.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.4 | 11.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.4%.
How many goals are Bastia and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Bastia and 0.58 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 1.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia's recent record stands at 6W 11D 9L from 26 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valenciennes, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 10L across 26 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Bastia against 1.15 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 3W 10D 0L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valenciennes's away record stands at 3W 7D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 1.00 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 6W 11D 9L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Valenciennes away?
Bastia's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.46 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Bastia or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 3-0 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bastia
2
Draws
2
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Valenciennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Bastia have won 2, Valenciennes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Valenciennes 3-1 Bastia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Valenciennes 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Bastia and 23% for Valenciennes.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Valenciennes in 38%; Bastia have failed to score in 38% of games; Valenciennes in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 46% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Bastia's recent games and 23% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and Valenciennes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Valenciennes finished level at 1-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.89 xG and Valenciennes 0.58 xG, a combined 1.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against Valenciennes attack 0.72 / defence 1.05, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 41% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 22%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 35%, Valenciennes 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Valenciennes's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.12 PPG, Valenciennes 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.