Bastia 1-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Paris FC travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia in Ligue 2 (matchday 38). The game is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bastia have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bastia's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Paris FC stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Paris FC's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Bastia's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bastia, 3 for Paris FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Bastia 0–1 Paris FC — a Paris FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Paris FC trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 44% versus Paris FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 41% | Paris FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.06 xG and Paris FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.882 / defence 1.062 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Data: built from Bastia's last 75 games and Paris FC's last 75.
Result probabilities: Bastia 32% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.11 | Draw 3.26 | Paris FC 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bastia's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bastia 30% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 38 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 32% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Bastia 1.06 / Paris FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.882 / def 1.062 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Paris FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Paris FC kick off?
Bastia vs Paris FC kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Paris FC?
Bastia 1 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Bastia vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Paris FC part of?
Bastia vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 38) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 32% chance of winning, Paris FC a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bastia and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Bastia vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.88x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 75 games and Paris FC's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.26
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.22
1.16
Paris FC xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bastia and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Bastia and 1.16 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 75 games, going 31W 17D 27L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.51 PPG from 75 outings (31W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.47 PPG, Paris FC on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 19W 8D 10L across their last 37 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.41 points per game from their last 37 away games (13W 13D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
Bastia (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
❓ Bastia vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 31W 17D 27L in their last 75 games (1.47 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 31W 20D 24L in their last 75 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Paris FC away?
Bastia's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.76 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Bastia or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
1
Draws
4
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Paris FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 3, Paris FC have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bastia and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: Paris FC 1-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Paris FC 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bastia) and 35% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Paris FC in 35%; Bastia have failed to score in 27% of games; Paris FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 49% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bastia's recent games and 35% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bastia and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Paris FC finished level at 1-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.06 xG and Paris FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Paris FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 32% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 37%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 41%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.47 PPG, Paris FC 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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