Bastia 1-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bastia host Metz at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia at Stade Armand-Césari this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Metz have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bastia 1.30 PPG, Metz 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Bastia in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Metz in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 46% versus Metz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 35% | Metz 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.38 xG and Metz 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.913 / defence 0.959 | Metz attack 1.198 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.180. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Bastia games / 8 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 37% | Draw 26% | Metz 36%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Metz 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 40% | Metz 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 37% | Draw 26% | Metz 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Bastia 1.38 / Metz 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.913 / def 0.959 | Metz attack 1.198 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Bastia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Metz xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Metz kick off?
Bastia vs Metz kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Metz?
Bastia 1 - 0 Metz.
Where is Bastia vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Metz part of?
Bastia vs Metz is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 37% chance of winning, Metz a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bastia and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Metz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bastia and Metz in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Metz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.91) and Metz's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.81
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.73
1.35
Metz xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Bastia and 1.35 for Metz, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Bastia have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 13W 17D 16L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz's form line: 9W 15D 22L from 46 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.22 PPG, Metz on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bastia have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (7W 11D 4L).
On the road, Metz have gone 4W 7D 11L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.11 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Metz in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 13W 17D 16L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Metz have gone 9W 15D 22L in their last 46 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Metz away?
Bastia's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.45 PPG; Metz away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Bastia or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Metz in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Bastia's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bastia
2
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Metz?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Metz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Bastia 1-1 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 36%, Metz 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Bastia) and 54% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 36% of games; Metz in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bastia's recent matches and 46% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Bastia's recent games and 54% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Metz tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Metz in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Metz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Metz 1-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.38 xG and Metz 1.35 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Metz landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Metz attack 1.20 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 37% | Draw 26% | Metz 36%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 35%, Metz 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Metz's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.22 PPG, Metz 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.