Bastia 0-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Armand-Césari plays host to Bastia versus Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Bastia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 0L across 5 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grenoble have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Bastia, 1.40 for Grenoble — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 54% versus Grenoble 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 27% | Grenoble 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.29 xG and Grenoble 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.968 / defence 0.962 | Grenoble attack 0.691 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 0.927 / away 1.019. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Bastia games / 11 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 49% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 17%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.04 | Draw 2.94 | Grenoble 5.88. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 60% | Grenoble 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 49% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Bastia 1.29 / Grenoble 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.968 / def 0.962 | Grenoble attack 0.691 / def 1.438 | league avg home 0.927 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Bastia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Grenoble xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Grenoble kick off?
Bastia vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Grenoble?
Bastia 0 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Bastia vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Grenoble part of?
Bastia vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 49% chance of winning, Grenoble a 17% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bastia and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Grenoble?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bastia and Grenoble in?
Bastia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Grenoble (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.97x the league average against Grenoble's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.69x) against Bastia's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
49%
2.04
34%
2.98
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.97
0.68
Grenoble xG
2.04
49%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
5%
20.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Bastia and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Bastia and 0.68 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 4D 5L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Bastia against 1.27 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 1W 4D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grenoble's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.09 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Grenoble away?
Bastia's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.40 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bastia
4
Draws
2
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 4, Grenoble have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when Bastia 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Grenoble?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 60%, Grenoble 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Bastia and 40% for Grenoble.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Grenoble in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bastia's recent matches and 40% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bastia's recent games and 40% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Grenoble tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Grenoble finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.29 xG and Grenoble 0.68 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Grenoble attack 0.69 / defence 1.44, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 49% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 17%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 27%, Grenoble 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 0.91 PPG, Grenoble 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.