Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bastia face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Estac Troyes travel to Stade Armand Cesari to take on Bastia in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Monday 16 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Bastia — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Bastia at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Estac Troyes have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bastia at 1.20 PPG versus Estac Troyes's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Bastia, 3 for Estac Troyes and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Bastia 0–1 Estac Troyes — a Estac Troyes win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bastia in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 40% versus Estac Troyes 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 31% | Estac Troyes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.84 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.711 / defence 1.034 | Estac Troyes attack 0.840 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.217. Bastia's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Bastia's last 55 games and Estac Troyes's last 56.
Result probabilities: Bastia 28% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 40%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.52 | Draw 3.17 | Estac Troyes 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bastia's last 10 home games and Estac Troyes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bastia 40% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Monday 16 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 28% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Bastia 0.84 / Estac Troyes 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.711 / def 1.034 | Estac Troyes attack 0.840 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Estac Troyes xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Bastia vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 16 February 2026 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Bastia 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Bastia vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs Estac Troyes part of?
Bastia vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 28% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bastia and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Bastia vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.71) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 55 games and Estac Troyes's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
28%
3.52
32%
3.17
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.90
1.06
Estac Troyes xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 15.8 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Bastia and 1.06 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Bastia have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 14W 22D 19L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 25W 10D 20L from 55 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.16 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bastia have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 26 home games (10W 10D 6L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 9W 5D 12L from their last 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.27 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Estac Troyes in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
Bastia (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Bastia vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 14W 22D 19L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 25W 10D 20L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Estac Troyes away?
Bastia's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.54 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Bastia or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 16 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bastia
2
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Estac Troyes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2026: Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 50%, Estac Troyes 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bastia) and 46% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 35%; Bastia have failed to score in 27% of games; Estac Troyes in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Estac Troyes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bastia's recent matches and 42% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bastia's recent games and 46% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Bastia's recent matches and 62% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Estac Troyes finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.84 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.71 / defence 1.03 against Estac Troyes attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 28% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 40%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 31%, Estac Troyes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.16 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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