Bastia 1-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 37%, yet in-form Bordeaux provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bastia vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Bastia welcome Bordeaux to Stade Armand-Césari. Kick-off is set for Monday 17 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stade Armand-Césari — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bordeaux — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bordeaux are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus Bordeaux 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 35% | Bordeaux 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.03 xG and Bordeaux 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.903 / defence 0.854 | Bordeaux attack 0.984 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.112. Data: 49 Bastia games / 11 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 37% | Draw 31% | Bordeaux 32%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Bordeaux 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bordeaux (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Bordeaux 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Monday 17 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 37% | Draw 31% | Bordeaux 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Bastia 1.03 / Bordeaux 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.903 / def 0.854 | Bordeaux attack 0.984 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Bastia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bordeaux xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Bordeaux kick off?
Bastia vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 17 October 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Bordeaux?
Bastia 1 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Bastia vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Bordeaux part of?
Bastia vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 37% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bastia and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Bordeaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bastia and Bordeaux in?
Bastia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.90x the league average against Bordeaux's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.21
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.97
0.93
Bordeaux xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Bastia and 0.93 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 17D 17L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bordeaux sit at 1.10 PPG from 49 outings (13W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.27 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 8W 12D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bordeaux have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.41 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 15W 17D 17L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 13W 15D 21L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Bordeaux away?
Bastia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.50 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bastia or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Bordeaux runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bastia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bastia's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bastia
1
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 2, Bordeaux have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Bordeaux 2-3 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Bordeaux?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Bordeaux 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Bastia) and 79% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 33% of games; Bordeaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 62% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Bastia's recent games and 79% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and Bordeaux share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Bordeaux finished level at 1-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.03 xG and Bordeaux 0.93 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Bordeaux attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 37% | Draw 31% | Bordeaux 32%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 35%, Bordeaux 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bordeaux's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.27 PPG, Bordeaux 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bordeaux (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.