Annecy 2-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Annecy welcome Laval to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Laval have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.60 PPG, Laval 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Annecy, 2 for Laval and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Laval in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 57% versus Laval 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 60% | Laval 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.14 xG and Laval 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.966 / defence 0.956 | Laval attack 1.095 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.142. Data: 47 Annecy games / 47 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 28% | Laval 37%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Laval 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 50% | Laval 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 28% | Laval 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Annecy 1.14 / Laval 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.966 / def 0.956 | Laval attack 1.095 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Laval (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Laval xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Laval kick off?
Annecy vs Laval kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Laval?
Annecy 2 - 0 Laval.
Where is Annecy vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Laval part of?
Annecy vs Laval is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 35% chance of winning, Laval a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Annecy and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Laval?
Record (4 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | Laval 2W.
What form are Annecy and Laval in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Laval (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.97x the league average against Laval's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
35%
2.90
28%
3.56
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.33
1.20
Laval xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Annecy and 1.20 for Laval, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 16W 13D 18L from 47 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 16L across 47 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.30 PPG, Laval on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 11W 6D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Laval in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 16W 13D 18L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Laval have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Laval away?
Laval's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.30 PPG; Laval away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Laval runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Laval specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
3
Draws
2
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Laval have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Laval?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Laval see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 52%, Laval 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Annecy) and 39% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Laval in 44%; Annecy have failed to score in 26% of games; Laval in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Annecy's recent matches and 35% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Annecy's recent games and 39% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Laval tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Laval in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Laval 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.14 xG and Laval 1.20 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Laval landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Laval attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 35% | Draw 28% | Laval 37%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 60%, Laval 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Laval's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.30 PPG, Laval 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.