Annecy 0-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Grenoble encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Grenoble travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parc des Sports this season.
Grenoble — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Grenoble's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Annecy are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Annecy, 2 for Grenoble and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Grenoble winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Grenoble trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus Grenoble 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 51% | Grenoble 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.25 xG and Grenoble 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.915 / defence 1.056 | Grenoble attack 0.842 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.182. Data: 70 Annecy games / 70 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 31% | Grenoble 30%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Grenoble 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Grenoble lead the H2H ledger, but Annecy carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 50% | Grenoble 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 31% | Grenoble 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Annecy 1.25 / Grenoble 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.915 / def 1.056 | Grenoble attack 0.842 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Annecy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Grenoble xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Grenoble kick off?
Annecy vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Grenoble?
Annecy 0 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Annecy vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Grenoble part of?
Annecy vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 39% chance of winning, Grenoble a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Annecy and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Grenoble?
Record (3 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Grenoble 2W.
What form are Annecy and Grenoble in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Grenoble (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.92x the league average against Grenoble's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.24
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.30
1.05
Grenoble xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Annecy and 1.05 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 21W 21D 28L from 70 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Grenoble, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 25L across 70 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.20 PPG, Grenoble on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 13W 10D 12L from 35 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grenoble's away record stands at 9W 9D 17L across 35 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.00 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Grenoble
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 21W 21D 28L in their last 70 games (1.20 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 24W 21D 25L in their last 70 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Grenoble away?
Annecy's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.40 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Annecy or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Grenoble in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Grenoble runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Annecy
3
Draws
3
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Grenoble?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Grenoble have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Annecy 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 43%, Grenoble 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Annecy) and 40% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Grenoble in 31%; Annecy have failed to score in 34% of games; Grenoble in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Annecy's recent matches and 34% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Annecy's recent games and 40% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Grenoble tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grenoble defy the odds to beat Annecy 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Annecy 0-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.25 xG and Grenoble 1.05 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Annecy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Grenoble attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 39% | Draw 31% | Grenoble 30%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Grenoble win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 51%, Grenoble 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.20 PPG, Grenoble 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.