Annecy 1-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Dijon travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Dijon — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dijon's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dijon are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Annecy, 0 for Dijon and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Dijon trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 39% versus Dijon 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 48% | Dijon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.12 xG and Dijon 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.834 / defence 1.150 | Dijon attack 0.958 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.093. Data: 33 Annecy games / 71 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 29% | Dijon 37%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Dijon 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dijon at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 40% | Dijon 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 29% | Dijon 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Annecy 1.12 / Dijon 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.834 / def 1.150 | Dijon attack 0.958 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Dijon (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Dijon xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Dijon kick off?
Annecy vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Dijon?
Annecy 1 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Annecy vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Dijon part of?
Annecy vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 33% chance of winning, Dijon a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Annecy and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 0 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Annecy and Dijon in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Dijon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.83) and Dijon's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.40
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.32
1.20
Dijon xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Annecy and 1.20 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 10D 14L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Dijon's form line: 8W 10D 15L from 33 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.12 PPG, Dijon on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L).
On the road, Dijon have gone 2W 4D 10L from 16 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dijon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 0.94 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Dijon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Dijon in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Dijon have gone 8W 10D 15L in their last 33 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Dijon away?
Annecy's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.50 PPG; Dijon away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Annecy or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Dijon in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Dijon runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Annecy
1
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Dijon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Annecy 1-1 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Dijon?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 31%, Dijon 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Annecy) and 56% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 44% of games; Dijon in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Annecy's recent matches and 56% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Annecy's recent games and 56% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Dijon tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dijon in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Dijon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Dijon finished level at 1-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.12 xG and Dijon 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.83 / defence 1.15 against Dijon attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 29% | Dijon 37%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Dijon 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.12 PPG, Dijon 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.