Annecy vs Boulogne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Boulogne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Boulogne travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 March 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Boulogne have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boulogne's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Annecy have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Annecy have won 1, Boulogne 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Boulogne in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Boulogne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 53% | Boulogne 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.08 xG and Boulogne 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.107 / defence 0.818 | Boulogne attack 0.682 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Annecy games / 38 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 43% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 22%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Boulogne 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Boulogne's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 70% | Boulogne 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 12 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 43% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Annecy 1.08 / Boulogne 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.107 / def 0.818 | Boulogne attack 0.682 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Annecy (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Boulogne xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Boulogne kick off?
Annecy vs Boulogne is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 March 2027 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Boulogne part of?
Annecy vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 43% chance of winning, Boulogne a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Annecy and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Boulogne?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Annecy and Boulogne in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Boulogne (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Annecy's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
43%
2.35
36%
2.80
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.78
0.70
Boulogne xG
2.35
43%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 11.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Annecy and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Annecy and 0.70 for Boulogne, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 17W 8D 13L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Boulogne's form line: 9W 12D 17L from 38 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Annecy are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
Venue Form
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 5W 7D 7L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.92 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Boulogne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 17W 8D 13L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Boulogne away?
Annecy's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.63 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Annecy or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Boulogne in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Annecy
1
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Boulogne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Boulogne 1-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Boulogne?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 63%, Boulogne 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Annecy) and 26% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Boulogne in 32%; Boulogne in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Annecy's recent matches and 37% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Annecy's recent games and 26% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Boulogne tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.