Annecy 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 47%, yet in-form Bastia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Annecy vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Bastia at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Friday 4 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Annecy — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Annecy at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Annecy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Bastia have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bastia away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bastia — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Annecy's 30% BTTS rate and Bastia's 30% (from Annecy's last 10 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Annecy, 3 for Bastia and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended Annecy 2–2 Bastia — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bastia in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 50% versus Bastia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Bastia 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Annecy surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Bastia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.38 xG and Bastia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.895 / defence 1.106 | Bastia attack 0.815 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.039. Data: built from Annecy's last 66 games and Bastia's last 66.
Result probabilities: Annecy 47% | Draw 27% | Bastia 26%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.12 | Draw 3.65 | Bastia 3.92. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bastia (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 30% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 29 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 4 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 47% | Draw 27% | Bastia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Annecy 1.38 / Bastia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.895 / def 1.106 | Bastia attack 0.815 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Annecy (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Bastia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Bastia kick off?
Annecy vs Bastia kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 4 April 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Annecy 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Annecy vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Bastia part of?
Annecy vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 47% chance of winning, Bastia a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Annecy and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Annecy vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.90x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 66 games and Bastia's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.65
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.32
0.94
Bastia xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Annecy and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Annecy and 0.94 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 23W 17D 26L from 66 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 21L across 66 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.30 PPG, Bastia on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 12W 8D 12L from their last 32 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 8W 9D 15L across their last 32 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.14 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
Annecy (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Annecy vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Bastia in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 23W 17D 26L in their last 66 games (1.30 PPG), while Bastia have gone 23W 22D 21L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Bastia away?
Annecy's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.38 PPG; Bastia away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Annecy or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bastia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won Bastia 3-0 Annecy.
Annecy's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bastia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 3, Bastia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 47%, Bastia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Annecy) and 38% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bastia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Annecy's recent matches and 47% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Annecy's recent games and 38% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Annecy's recent matches and 75% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 29, as Annecy and Bastia drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.38 xG and Bastia 0.94 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Bastia attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 47% | Draw 27% | Bastia 26%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Bastia 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.30 PPG, Bastia 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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