Annecy 2-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Friday 25 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports.
Ajaccio (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ajaccio's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Annecy, 1.50 for Ajaccio — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Annecy, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Ajaccio — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Annecy winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Annecy and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 49% versus Ajaccio 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 48% | Ajaccio 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.05 xG and Ajaccio 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.790 / defence 0.974 | Ajaccio attack 0.740 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.100. Annecy's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Annecy games / 69 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 41% | Draw 32% | Ajaccio 27%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Ajaccio 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 40% | Ajaccio 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 41% | Draw 32% | Ajaccio 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Annecy 1.05 / Ajaccio 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.790 / def 0.974 | Ajaccio attack 0.740 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Annecy (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Ajaccio xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Ajaccio kick off?
Annecy vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Annecy 2 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Annecy vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Ajaccio part of?
Annecy vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 41% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Annecy and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Ajaccio?
Record (3 meetings): Annecy 3W | Draws 0 | Ajaccio 0W.
What form are Annecy and Ajaccio in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Ajaccio (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Annecy's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.74x) against Annecy's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
41%
2.45
32%
3.12
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.84
0.79
Ajaccio xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Annecy and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Annecy and 0.79 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy come into this having played 69 games, going 24W 19D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.23 PPG from 69 outings (23W 16D 30L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Annecy against 1.23 for Ajaccio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Annecy's home form reads 12W 10D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 0.65 points per game from 34 outings (5W 7D 22L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.91 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Ajaccio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 24W 19D 26L in their last 69 games (1.32 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 23W 16D 30L in their last 69 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Ajaccio away?
Annecy's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.35 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Annecy or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Annecy go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Annecy
0
Draws
0
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Ajaccio?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, Ajaccio have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Annecy 2-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Ajaccio?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 47%, Ajaccio 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Annecy) and 35% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 26% of games; Ajaccio in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Annecy's recent matches and 26% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Annecy's recent games and 35% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Ajaccio 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.05 xG and Ajaccio 0.79 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.79 / defence 0.97 against Ajaccio attack 0.74 / defence 0.95, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 41% | Draw 32% | Ajaccio 27%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Ajaccio 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.32 PPG, Ajaccio 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.