Amiens 0-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Amiens face Valenciennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valenciennes make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Amiens's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Amiens have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valenciennes have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Valenciennes have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Amiens against 1.20 for Valenciennes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Amiens, 1 for Valenciennes and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Amiens 0–2 Valenciennes — a Valenciennes win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Valenciennes — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 50% versus Valenciennes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 46% | Valenciennes 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.43 xG and Valenciennes 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.213 / defence 0.968 | Valenciennes attack 0.823 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.034. Data: built from Amiens's last 44 games and Valenciennes's last 44.
Result probabilities: Amiens 51% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 21%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.98 | Draw 3.52 | Valenciennes 4.76. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 50% (last 10 home games) | Valenciennes 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 7 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 51% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Amiens 1.43 / Valenciennes 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.213 / def 0.968 | Valenciennes attack 0.823 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Amiens (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Valenciennes xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Valenciennes FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Valenciennes kick off?
Amiens vs Valenciennes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Valenciennes?
Amiens 0 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Amiens vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Valenciennes part of?
Amiens vs Valenciennes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 7) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 51% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Amiens and Valenciennes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Amiens vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Amiens's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.82x) against Amiens's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 44 games and Valenciennes's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
51%
1.98
28%
3.52
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.25
0.82
Valenciennes xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Valenciennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Amiens and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Amiens and 0.82 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 17W 8D 19L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Valenciennes's form line: 11W 17D 16L from 44 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Amiens against 1.14 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 22 home games (11W 3D 8L).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 5W 5D 12L from their last 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 1.02 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Valenciennes
Early Season
Amiens (Home) vs Valenciennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Early Season
Valenciennes
Early Season
❓ Amiens vs Valenciennes Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 17W 8D 19L in their last 44 games (1.34 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 11W 17D 16L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Valenciennes away?
Amiens's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.64 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Amiens or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Amiens and Valenciennes, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won Amiens 3-0 Valenciennes on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Amiens
2
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Valenciennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Valenciennes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 3, Valenciennes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Valenciennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 January 2024: Valenciennes 0-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Valenciennes?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 50%, Valenciennes 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Amiens) and 32% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Valenciennes in 32%; Valenciennes in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Valenciennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Valenciennes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Amiens's recent matches and 32% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Valenciennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Amiens's recent games and 32% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Valenciennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Amiens's recent matches and 64% of Valenciennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 7, as Amiens and Valenciennes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.43 xG and Valenciennes 0.82 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Valenciennes landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Valenciennes attack 0.82 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 51% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 21%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 46%, Valenciennes 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valenciennes's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.34 PPG, Valenciennes 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Valenciennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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