Amiens 0-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade de la Licorne: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Laval (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Laval have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Amiens, 0.70 for Laval — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Amiens 2W, Laval 3W, 2D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with Amiens winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Laval — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 51% versus Laval 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 55% | Laval 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.34 xG and Laval 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.873 / defence 1.185 | Laval attack 0.853 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.187. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Amiens games / 53 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 40% | Draw 27% | Laval 33%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Laval 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 60% | Laval 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 40% | Draw 27% | Laval 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Amiens 1.34 / Laval 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.873 / def 1.185 | Laval attack 0.853 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Amiens (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Laval xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Laval kick off?
Amiens vs Laval kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Laval?
Amiens 0 - 0 Laval.
Where is Amiens vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Laval part of?
Amiens vs Laval is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 40% chance of winning, Laval a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Amiens and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Laval?
Record (7 meetings): Amiens 2W | Draws 2 | Laval 3W.
What form are Amiens and Laval in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Laval (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.87x the league average against Laval's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.85x) against Amiens's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.75
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.54
1.20
Laval xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Amiens and 1.20 for Laval, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens's recent record stands at 18W 7D 28L from 53 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 22L across 53 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Amiens against 1.23 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 12W 4D 10L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 9W 8D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.09 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Laval in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 18W 7D 28L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while Laval have gone 17W 14D 22L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Laval away?
Amiens's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.54 PPG; Laval away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 0-3 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Amiens
3
Draws
3
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Laval have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Amiens 0-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 54%, Laval 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Amiens) and 35% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Laval in 35%; Laval in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Amiens's recent matches and 38% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Amiens's recent games and 35% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Laval tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Laval in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Laval finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.34 xG and Laval 1.20 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Laval landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Laval attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 40% | Draw 27% | Laval 33%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 55%, Laval 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Laval's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.15 PPG, Laval 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.