Amiens 3-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Dunkerque at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Amiens — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this season: 1W 4D 3L from 8 home games — 0.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's away record: 2W 1D 4L from 7 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Amiens 1.00 PPG, Dunkerque 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 44% versus Dunkerque 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 38% | Dunkerque 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.03 xG and Dunkerque 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.892 / defence 1.052 | Dunkerque attack 0.931 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 0.975. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Amiens games / 16 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 37% | Draw 31% | Dunkerque 32%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Dunkerque 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 38% | Dunkerque 57%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 37% | Draw 31% | Dunkerque 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Amiens 1.03 / Dunkerque 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.892 / def 1.052 | Dunkerque attack 0.931 / def 1.271 | league avg home 0.911 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Amiens (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Dunkerque xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Dunkerque kick off?
Amiens vs Dunkerque kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Amiens 3 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Amiens vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Dunkerque part of?
Amiens vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 37% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Amiens and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dunkerque?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Dunkerque in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.89) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.23
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.99
0.95
Dunkerque xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
12%
8.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Amiens and 0.95 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens's recent record stands at 2W 9D 5L from 16 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 8L across 16 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 0.94 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 1W 4D 2L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.88 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 2W 9D 5L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Dunkerque away?
Amiens's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.00 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Amiens or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Dunkerque runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dunkerque go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Dunkerque won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Amiens
1
Draws
4
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Dunkerque have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Amiens 1-4 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 29%, Dunkerque 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Amiens) and 57% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 57% of games; Dunkerque in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Amiens's recent matches and 57% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Amiens's recent games and 57% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Amiens run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Dunkerque 3-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.03 xG and Dunkerque 0.95 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dunkerque landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.89 / defence 1.05 against Dunkerque attack 0.93 / defence 1.27, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 37% | Draw 31% | Dunkerque 32%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Dunkerque 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dunkerque's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 0.94 PPG, Dunkerque 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.