Ajaccio 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajaccio host Rodez at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Ajaccio haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ajaccio at Stade François Coty this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rodez — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rodez away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Rodez's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Ajaccio's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ajaccio, 0 for Rodez and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Ajaccio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Rodez in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 32% versus Rodez 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 51% | Rodez 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.08 xG and Rodez 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Rodez attack 1.024 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Ajaccio games / 37 Rodez games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 30% | Draw 27% | Rodez 43%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Rodez 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 10% | Rodez 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 30% | Draw 27% | Rodez 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Ajaccio 1.08 / Rodez 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Rodez attack 1.024 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Rodez (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Rodez xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Rodez kick off?
Ajaccio vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Ajaccio 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Ajaccio vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Rodez part of?
Ajaccio vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 30% chance of winning, Rodez a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ajaccio and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Rodez?
Record (2 meetings): Ajaccio 2W | Draws 0 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Ajaccio and Rodez in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ajaccio (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajaccio's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
30%
3.32
27%
3.68
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.43
1.35
Rodez xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.35 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 7W 5D 25L from 37 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. Ajaccio haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 14L across 37 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. Rodez haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rodez by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajaccio heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 4W 2D 12L from 18 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 6W 6D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 0.59 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.03 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Pre-Season
Rodez
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Rodez in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 7W 5D 25L in their last 37 games (0.70 PPG), while Rodez have gone 10W 13D 14L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 0.78 PPG; Rodez away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajaccio go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ajaccio's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ajaccio
1
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 4, Rodez have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Rodez 1-2 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Rodez?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ajaccio 22% BTTS, Rodez 39%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Ajaccio) and 33% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Rodez in 33%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 67% of games; Rodez in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 39% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ajaccio's recent games and 33% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Rodez tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Rodez in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajaccio and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 1, as Ajaccio and Rodez drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.08 xG and Rodez 1.35 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 0/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 30% | Draw 27% | Rodez 43%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 51%, Rodez 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.