Toulouse 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 make the trip to Stadium de Toulouse to face Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Toulouse have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stade Brestois 29 in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Stade Brestois 29 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 59% | Stade Brestois 29 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.50 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.992 / defence 1.112 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.869 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.333. Data: 18 Toulouse games / 56 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 42% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 32%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Stade Brestois 29 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Stade Brestois 29 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 42% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Toulouse 1.50 / Stade Brestois 29 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.992 / def 1.112 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.869 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Stade Brestois 29 xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29?
Toulouse 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 42% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Stade Brestois 29's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.87x) against Toulouse's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.76
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.79
1.29
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.29 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Toulouse come into this having played 56 games, going 29W 14D 13L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stade Brestois 29 sit at 1.11 PPG from 56 outings (16W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Toulouse's home form reads 18W 7D 3L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Stade Brestois 29 have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.20 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 in 62%.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 29W 14D 13L in their last 56 games (1.80 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 16W 14D 26L in their last 56 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Toulouse's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.18 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Toulouse have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stade Brestois 29 won 0-3 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 0-2 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 54%, Stade Brestois 29 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Toulouse) and 50% (Stade Brestois 29). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Toulouse's games and 71% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Toulouse's matches and 50% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.50 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.29 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 42% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 32%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 59%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.