Toulouse 1-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nice make the trip to Stadium de Toulouse to face Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Toulouse have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nice (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Toulouse, 2.00 for Nice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Toulouse have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Nice in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Toulouse 1W, Nice 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 55% versus Nice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 55% | Nice 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.38 xG and Nice 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.826 / defence 1.038 | Nice attack 1.125 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.312. Data: 53 Toulouse games / 53 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 32% | Draw 29% | Nice 39%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Nice 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Nice 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 32% | Draw 29% | Nice 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Toulouse 1.38 / Nice 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.826 / def 1.038 | Nice attack 1.125 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Nice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Nice xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Nice kick off?
Toulouse vs Nice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Nice?
Toulouse 1 - 1 Nice.
Where is Toulouse vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Nice part of?
Toulouse vs Nice is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 32% chance of winning, Nice a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Toulouse and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nice?
Record (5 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 3 | Nice 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Nice in?
Toulouse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Nice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.83) and Nice's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nice's attack (1.12x) against Toulouse's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
32%
3.12
29%
3.41
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.92
1.53
Nice xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
7%
14.48
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.53 for Nice, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Toulouse's recent record stands at 18W 14D 21L from 53 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 13L across 53 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Toulouse against 1.66 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 7W 9D 11L from 27 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 9W 9D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.47 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Nice in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 18W 14D 21L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Nice have gone 24W 16D 13L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.11 PPG; Nice away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Nice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Toulouse have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 5-1 on 17 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Toulouse
4
Draws
1
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Nice have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Toulouse 5-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Nice?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 67%, Nice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Toulouse) and 48% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Nice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Toulouse's games and 56% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Toulouse's recent games and 48% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Nice tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Nice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and Nice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 20, as Toulouse and Nice drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.38 xG and Nice 1.53 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Nice attack 1.12 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 32% | Draw 29% | Nice 39%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 55%, Nice 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Nice's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.28 PPG, Nice 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.