Toulouse 1-2 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Toulouse face Nantes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Nantes travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Toulouse at home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Nantes have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Nantes have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Toulouse) versus 0.50 (Nantes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Toulouse have won 1, Nantes 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Toulouse 2–1 Nantes — a Toulouse win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nantes in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 55% versus Nantes 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 53% | Nantes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.12 xG and Nantes 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.791 / defence 1.075 | Nantes attack 0.754 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.086. Toulouse's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Nantes's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Toulouse's last 58 games and Nantes's last 58.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 35% | Nantes 26%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.59 | Draw 2.83 | Nantes 3.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Toulouse 70% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 35% | Nantes 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Toulouse 1.12 / Nantes 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.791 / def 1.075 | Nantes attack 0.754 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Nantes xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Nantes kick off?
Toulouse vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Nantes?
Toulouse 1 - 2 Nantes.
Where is Toulouse vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Nantes part of?
Toulouse vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 39% chance of winning, Nantes a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Toulouse and Nantes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Toulouse vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.79) and Nantes's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 58 games and Nantes's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
39%
2.59
35%
2.83
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.00
0.88
Nantes xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.88 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 17D 24L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 0.95 PPG from 58 outings (12W 19D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.17 PPG, Nantes on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 7W 11D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.71 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.98 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Nantes
Blended
Toulouse (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Toulouse vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Nantes in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Nantes have gone 12W 19D 27L in their last 58 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Nantes away?
Toulouse's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.14 PPG; Nantes away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 27 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Toulouse's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Toulouse
4
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nantes?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 1, Nantes have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 September 2025: Toulouse 2-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 61%, Nantes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Toulouse) and 50% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 29% of games; Nantes in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Nantes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Toulouse's games and 50% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Toulouse and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Toulouse's recent games and 50% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Toulouse's recent matches and 54% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nantes defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.12 xG and Nantes 0.88 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nantes outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Nantes attack 0.75 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 39% | Draw 35% | Nantes 26%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nantes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 53%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Nantes's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.17 PPG, Nantes 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantes win broke the near-deadlock. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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