Strasbourg 3-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Strasbourg vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Auxerre travel to Stade de la Meinau to take on Strasbourg in Ligue 1 (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 October 2025 at 20:05 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Strasbourg stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Strasbourg's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Strasbourg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Strasbourg have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Strasbourg, 1 for Auxerre and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2025, ended Strasbourg 1–0 Auxerre — a Strasbourg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Strasbourg trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Auxerre trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 63% versus Auxerre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 60% | Auxerre 58%). Note also that Auxerre surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Strasbourg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 2.19 xG and Auxerre 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.173 / defence 0.843 | Auxerre attack 0.957 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.205. Data: built from Strasbourg's last 43 games and Auxerre's last 43.
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 65% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 16%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 1.54 | Draw 5.17 | Auxerre 6.41. The model has a clear lean to Strasbourg (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Strasbourg's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Strasbourg 70% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 10 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 October 2025 at 20:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 65% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Strasbourg 2.19 / Auxerre 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.173 / def 0.843 | Auxerre attack 0.957 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Auxerre xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Strasbourg vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Strasbourg vs Auxerre kick off?
Strasbourg vs Auxerre kicked off at 20:05 UK time on Wednesday 29 October 2025 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Strasbourg 3 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Strasbourg vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Auxerre part of?
Strasbourg vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 10) (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 65% chance of winning, Auxerre a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Strasbourg and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Strasbourg vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Strasbourg's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Strasbourg's last 43 games and Auxerre's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
65%
1.54
19%
5.17
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
3.16
0.97
Auxerre xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
11%
8.93
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
2%
57.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Strasbourg vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Strasbourg and 0.97 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 21W 10D 12L from 43 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 20L across 43 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Strasbourg by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 13W 5D 3L from their last 21 home games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Strasbourg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Auxerre's away record stands at 4W 4D 13L across their last 21 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Strasbourg are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.28 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
Strasbourg (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Strasbourg
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Strasbourg vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Strasbourg and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 21W 10D 12L in their last 43 games (1.70 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Auxerre away?
Strasbourg's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 2.10 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Auxerre in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Nov 2026, when Strasbourg won Strasbourg 5-1 Auxerre.
Strasbourg's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Strasbourg
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Strasbourg vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Auxerre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Strasbourg have won 5, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Strasbourg 5-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Auxerre?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 67%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Strasbourg and 62% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Strasbourg vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Strasbourg and Auxerre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Strasbourg's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Strasbourg and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Strasbourg's matches and 62% of Auxerre's.
Do Strasbourg and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 95% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Strasbourg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Auxerre 3-0 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 2.19 xG and Auxerre 0.97 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against Auxerre attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 65% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 16%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 60%, Auxerre 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Auxerre's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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