Stade Brestois 29 0-3 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Stade Brestois 29 versus Nice in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 9 January 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season.
Nice have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nice have gone 6W 1D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.70 for Nice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 0W, Nice 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Nice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Brestois 29 79% and Nice 42% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 53% | Nice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 0.94 xG and Nice 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.957 / defence 1.202 | Nice attack 0.965 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.271. Data: 19 Stade Brestois 29 games / 19 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 23% | Draw 28% | Nice 49%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Nice 2.04. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 56% | Nice 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 23% | Draw 28% | Nice 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Stade Brestois 29 0.94 / Nice 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.957 / def 1.202 | Nice attack 0.965 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Nice (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Nice xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Stade Brestois 29 0 - 3 Nice.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 23% chance of winning, Nice a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Nice?
Record (1 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 0W | Draws 0 | Nice 1W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Nice in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.96x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
23%
4.32
28%
3.53
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.42
1.48
Nice xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
5%
18.87
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.48 for Nice, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 7D 6L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.79 PPG from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 2.11 points per game from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.53 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Nice in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Nice have gone 10W 4D 5L in their last 19 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.33 PPG; Nice away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Nice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nice won 6-0 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
3
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Nice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nice 2-2 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 56%, Nice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stade Brestois 29) and 56% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nice in 44%; Nice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 33% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 56% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Nice tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nice in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nice run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stade Brestois 29.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Stade Brestois 29 0-3 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 0.94 xG and Nice 1.48 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Nice outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.96 / defence 1.20 against Nice attack 0.96 / defence 0.86, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 23% | Draw 28% | Nice 49%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 53%, Nice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.