Stade Brestois 29 1-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Le Havre travel to Stade Francis-Le Blé to take on Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stade Brestois 29's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Le Havre — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Le Havre have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Stade Brestois 29 are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 0 for Le Havre and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Stade Brestois 29 2–1 Le Havre — a Stade Brestois 29 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 52% versus Le Havre 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 48% | Le Havre 36%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stade Brestois 29 surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Le Havre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Stade Brestois 29 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.75 xG and Le Havre 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.060 / defence 0.674 | Le Havre attack 0.811 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.160. Le Havre's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stade Brestois 29's projected output up. Stade Brestois 29 have a tight defence (rating 0.674), which is pulling Le Havre's projected output down. Data: built from Stade Brestois 29's last 61 games and Le Havre's last 23.
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 63% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 12%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.60 | Draw 3.88 | Le Havre 8.69. The model has a clear lean to Stade Brestois 29 (63%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stade Brestois 29's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stade Brestois 29 30% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 63% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.75 / Le Havre 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.060 / def 0.674 | Le Havre attack 0.811 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Le Havre xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre?
Stade Brestois 29 1 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 63% chance of winning, Le Havre a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stade Brestois 29's last 61 games and Le Havre's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
63%
1.60
26%
3.88
12%
8.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.38
0.64
Le Havre xG
1.60
63%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
8.69
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
2%
49.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.64 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 18D 20L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Le Havre's form line: 25W 24D 12L from 61 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.43 PPG, Le Havre on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 30 home games (13W 9D 8L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 10W 15D 5L from their last 30 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.15 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Stade Brestois 29 (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 23W 18D 20L in their last 61 games (1.43 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 25W 24D 12L in their last 61 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Le Havre away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.60 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Le Havre in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stade Brestois 29 have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Stade Brestois 29
0
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 have won 6, Le Havre have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 50%, Le Havre 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Stade Brestois 29) and 37% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Le Havre in 40%; Le Havre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 47% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 37% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 53% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Le Havre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Le Havre 1-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.75 xG and Le Havre 0.64 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.06 / defence 0.67 against Le Havre attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 63% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 12%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 48%, Le Havre 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Le Havre's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.43 PPG, Le Havre 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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