Saint Etienne 2-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Relegation Round sees Metz travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Thursday 30 May 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Saint Etienne haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Metz have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Metz's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Saint Etienne have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 2 for Metz and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with Metz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Metz trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 63% versus Metz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 55% | Metz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.51 xG and Metz 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Metz attack 0.862 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.395. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Saint Etienne games / 34 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 40% | Draw 25% | Metz 35%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Metz 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 60% | Metz 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Thursday 30 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 40% | Draw 25% | Metz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Saint Etienne 1.51 / Metz 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Metz attack 0.862 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Metz xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Metz kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Metz kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 30 May 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Saint Etienne 2 - 1 Metz.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Metz part of?
Saint Etienne vs Metz is a Relegation Round fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 40% chance of winning, Metz a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Saint Etienne and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Metz?
Record (4 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 1 | Metz 2W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Metz in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Metz (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.85x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
40%
2.47
25%
4.02
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.89
1.38
Metz xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.38 for Metz, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 15W 11D 12L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. Saint Etienne haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Metz's form line: 11W 6D 21L from 38 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Metz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.79 PPG from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
On the road, Metz have gone 6W 3D 10L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.08 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Pre-Season
Metz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Metz in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 15W 11D 12L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Metz have gone 11W 6D 21L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Metz away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.79 PPG; Metz away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Metz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Metz specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Metz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Metz 2-2 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Metz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 47%, Metz 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Saint Etienne) and 47% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 53% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 47% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Metz tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Metz in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Metz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Metz 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Relegation Round, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.51 xG and Metz 1.38 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Metz attack 0.86 / defence 1.23, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 40% | Draw 25% | Metz 35%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 55%, Metz 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.