Rennes 2-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Rennes (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Roazhon Park, Rennes have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Toulouse have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Rennes's favour (2.40 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 56% versus Toulouse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 56% | Toulouse 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.51 xG and Toulouse 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.461 / defence 0.743 | Toulouse attack 0.760 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.379. Rennes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rennes's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Rennes games / 14 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 75% | Draw 16% | Toulouse 9%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Toulouse 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rennes 30% | Toulouse 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 75% | Draw 16% | Toulouse 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 50% | xG Rennes 2.51 / Toulouse 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.461 / def 0.743 | Toulouse attack 0.760 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Rennes (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Toulouse xG
50%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Toulouse kick off?
Rennes vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Rennes 2 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Rennes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Toulouse part of?
Rennes vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 75% chance of winning, Toulouse a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rennes and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rennes and Toulouse in?
Rennes (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.46) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.76x) against Rennes's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
75%
1.34
16%
6.08
9%
11.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.29
0.78
Toulouse xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.08
16%
Draw
11.19
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
8%
12.35
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
1%
138.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Rennes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Rennes and 0.78 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rennes's recent record stands at 28W 10D 14L from 52 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 11L across 52 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Rennes against 1.83 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 20W 0D 5L from 25 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Toulouse's away record stands at 10W 7D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.94 scored and 1.12 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 28W 10D 14L in their last 52 games (1.81 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 27W 14D 11L in their last 52 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Toulouse away?
Rennes's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.40 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Rennes or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Toulouse in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rennes
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Rennes have won 2, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Rennes 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 36%, Toulouse 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rennes) and 52% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Toulouse in 32%; Toulouse in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Rennes's recent matches and 52% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rennes's matches and 52% of Toulouse's.
Do Rennes and Toulouse tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rennes edge out Toulouse 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Toulouse 2-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.51 xG and Toulouse 0.78 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.46 / defence 0.74 against Toulouse attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 75% | Draw 16% | Toulouse 9%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 56%, Toulouse 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.81 PPG, Toulouse 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.