Rennes 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 68% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rennes face Stade Brestois 29.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1 (matchday 18). Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Rennes (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Rennes have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rennes are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Stade Brestois 29's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Stade Brestois 29's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Rennes against 1.30 for Stade Brestois 29. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Rennes, 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Rennes 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 59% versus Stade Brestois 29 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 57% | Stade Brestois 29 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.33 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.129 / defence 0.847 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.826 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.314. Stade Brestois 29's defence rating of 1.327 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rennes's projected output up. Data: built from Rennes's last 51 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 51.
Result probabilities: Rennes 68% | Draw 20% | Stade Brestois 29 12%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.47 | Draw 5.04 | Stade Brestois 29 8.17. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (68%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Stade Brestois 29's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rennes 40% (last 10 home games) | Stade Brestois 29 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 68% | Draw 20% | Stade Brestois 29 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Rennes 2.33 / Stade Brestois 29 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.129 / def 0.847 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.826 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Rennes (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Stade Brestois 29 xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Rennes 1 - 2 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 68% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.13) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.83x) against Rennes's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 51 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.04
12%
8.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.25
0.92
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
8.17
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
10%
10.28
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
1%
83.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Rennes and 0.92 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rennes's recent record stands at 17W 12D 22L from 51 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 16L across 51 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Rennes against 1.63 for Stade Brestois 29. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 11W 5D 9L from their last 25 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 10W 3D 12L across their last 25 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Rennes are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.55 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Stade Brestois 29 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 24W 11D 16L in their last 51 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Rennes's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.52 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Rennes or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Rennes and Stade Brestois 29, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rennes have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rennes
3
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Stade Brestois 29?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 5, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Stade Brestois 29 3-4 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Stade Brestois 29?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 64%, Stade Brestois 29 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Rennes and 56% for Stade Brestois 29. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Rennes's games and 48% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Rennes's matches and 56% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Rennes's recent matches and 76% of Stade Brestois 29's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stade Brestois 29 defy the odds to beat Rennes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Rennes 1-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.33 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.92 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rennes fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.13 / defence 0.85 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.83 / defence 1.33, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 68% | Draw 20% | Stade Brestois 29 12%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Stade Brestois 29 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 57%, Stade Brestois 29 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.24 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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