Rennes 1-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Reims travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes in Ligue 1 (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rennes have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rennes's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Reims — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Reims away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Rennes are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Rennes have won 3, Reims 4, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Rennes 1–2 Reims — a Reims win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Reims in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rennes 57% and Reims 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 55% | Reims 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.62 xG and Reims 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 0.951 / defence 0.917 | Reims attack 0.878 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.342. Data: built from Rennes's last 56 games and Reims's last 56.
Result probabilities: Rennes 48% | Draw 28% | Reims 24%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.08 | Draw 3.52 | Reims 4.24. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rennes 40% (last 10 home games) | Reims 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 48% | Draw 28% | Reims 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Rennes 1.62 / Reims 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 0.951 / def 0.917 | Reims attack 0.878 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Rennes (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Reims xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Reims FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Reims kick off?
Rennes vs Reims kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Reims?
Rennes 1 - 0 Reims.
Where is Rennes vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Reims part of?
Rennes vs Reims is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 48% chance of winning, Reims a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rennes and Reims will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rennes's attack rating (0.95) and Reims's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 56 games and Reims's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.52
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.70
1.08
Reims xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
21.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Reims Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rennes and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Rennes and 1.08 for Reims, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rennes's recent record stands at 19W 12D 25L from 56 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 23L across 56 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rennes on 1.23 PPG, Reims on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 12W 4D 11L from their last 27 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 8W 8D 11L across their last 27 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Rennes are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.21 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims in 64%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Reims
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Reims (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Reims Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Reims in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 15D 23L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Reims away?
Rennes's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.48 PPG; Reims away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when Rennes won Rennes 3-0 Reims.
Rennes's record when hosting Reims specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Rennes
0
Draws
4
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Reims H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Reims?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 4, Reims have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Reims last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2025: Rennes 1-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rennes at 59%, Reims at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Rennes and 67% for Reims. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Reims Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Reims matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rennes's games and 74% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rennes and Reims matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Rennes's matches and 67% of Reims's.
Do Rennes and Reims matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Rennes's recent matches and 67% of Reims's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rennes edge out Reims 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Reims 1-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.62 xG and Reims 1.08 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reims landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Reims attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 48% | Draw 28% | Reims 24%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 55%, Reims 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Reims's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.23 PPG, Reims 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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