Reims 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Reims's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stade Brestois 29 away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Reims carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Reims have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 51% versus Stade Brestois 29 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 42% | Stade Brestois 29 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.61 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.163 / defence 0.817 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.831 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.261. Data: 67 Reims games / 67 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 55% | Draw 26% | Stade Brestois 29 19%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Stade Brestois 29 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Reims (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Stade Brestois 29 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 55% | Draw 26% | Stade Brestois 29 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Reims 1.61 / Stade Brestois 29 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.163 / def 0.817 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.831 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Reims (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Stade Brestois 29 xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reims 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 55% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reims and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (3 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 3 | Stade Brestois 29 0W.
What form are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Reims (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reims's attack at 1.16x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.87
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Reims xG
Total xG
2.46
0.85
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
25.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Reims and 0.85 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Reims have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 22W 26D 19L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Stade Brestois 29's form line: 19W 18D 30L from 67 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.37 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.39 PPG from 33 outings (12W 10D 11L).
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 9W 8D 16L from 33 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.22 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 in 63%.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 22W 26D 19L in their last 67 games (1.37 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 19W 18D 30L in their last 67 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Reims's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.39 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Reims or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Stade Brestois 29 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
6
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 52%, Stade Brestois 29 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Reims) and 52% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Reims's games and 67% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Reims's recent games and 52% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.61 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.85 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 55% | Draw 26% | Stade Brestois 29 19%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 42%, Stade Brestois 29 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.37 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.