Reims 2-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Rennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Rennes at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune than their overall form suggests.
Rennes — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rennes have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reims at 1.00 PPG versus Rennes's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Reims have won 2, Rennes 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Rennes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Rennes in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 55% versus Rennes 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Rennes 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.04 xG and Rennes 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.806 / defence 0.825 | Rennes attack 1.002 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.392. Data: 71 Reims games / 71 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 32% | Draw 30% | Rennes 38%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Rennes 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reims 50% | Rennes 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 32% | Draw 30% | Rennes 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Reims 1.04 / Rennes 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.806 / def 0.825 | Rennes attack 1.002 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Rennes (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Rennes xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Rennes kick off?
Reims vs Rennes kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Rennes?
Reims 2 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Reims vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Rennes part of?
Reims vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 32% chance of winning, Rennes a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Reims and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Rennes?
Record (5 meetings): Reims 2W | Draws 0 | Rennes 3W.
What form are Reims and Rennes in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Rennes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Rennes's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
32%
3.08
30%
3.38
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Reims xG
Total xG
2.19
1.15
Rennes xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Reims and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Reims and 1.15 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reims come into this having played 71 games, going 24W 23D 24L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.61 PPG from 71 outings (33W 15D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.34 PPG, Rennes on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Reims's home form reads 15W 9D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.26 points per game from 35 outings (11W 11D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.70 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Rennes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Rennes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 24W 23D 24L in their last 71 games (1.34 PPG), while Rennes have gone 33W 15D 23L in their last 71 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Rennes away?
Reims's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.54 PPG; Rennes away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Reims or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rennes in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Rennes runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Reims
0
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Rennes?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 4, Rennes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Rennes 1-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 49%, Rennes 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Reims) and 49% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rennes in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Reims's recent matches and 60% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Reims's recent games and 49% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Rennes tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rennes in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Rennes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Rennes 2-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.04 xG and Rennes 1.15 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.81 / defence 0.82 against Rennes attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 32% | Draw 30% | Rennes 38%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Rennes 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Rennes's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.34 PPG, Rennes 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.