Reims 0-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Nice at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune II: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nice have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reims 1.80 PPG, Nice 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Reims have won 0, Nice 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 2–3 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nice in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 55% versus Nice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 41% | Nice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.34 xG and Nice 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.018 / defence 0.950 | Nice attack 0.920 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.333. Data: 56 Reims games / 56 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 40% | Draw 28% | Nice 32%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Nice 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reims 70% | Nice 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 40% | Draw 28% | Nice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Reims 1.34 / Nice 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.018 / def 0.950 | Nice attack 0.920 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Reims (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Nice xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Nice kick off?
Reims vs Nice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Nice?
Reims 0 - 0 Nice.
Where is Reims vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Nice part of?
Reims vs Nice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 40% chance of winning, Nice a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Reims and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nice?
Record (2 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 1 | Nice 1W.
What form are Reims and Nice in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Nice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reims's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.53
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Reims xG
Total xG
2.51
1.17
Nice xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Reims and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Reims and 1.17 for Nice, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 22D 18L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.62 PPG from 56 outings (26W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.25 PPG, Nice on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Reims's home form reads 8W 9D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.56 points per game from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.32 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Nice in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 16W 22D 18L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Nice have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.22 PPG; Nice away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Reims or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Nice in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Nice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Reims's record when hosting Nice specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
4
Draws
4
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Nice have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Nice 1-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 56%, Nice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Reims) and 44% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Nice in 33%; Reims have failed to score in 30% of games; Nice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Reims's recent matches and 44% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Reims's recent games and 44% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Nice tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Nice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Nice finished level at 0-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.34 xG and Nice 1.17 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Nice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Nice attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 40% | Draw 28% | Nice 32%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 41%, Nice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.25 PPG, Nice 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.