Reims 1-1 Lens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lens (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Reims face Lens.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Reims welcome Lens to Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 18 February 2024 at 16:05 UK time.
Form Guide
Reims — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Reims's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Reims are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lens stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Lens have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lens — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Lens have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Reims.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Reims 0–2 Lens — a Lens win.
Lens have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lens trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 51% versus Lens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Lens 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 0.87 xG and Lens 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.883 / defence 1.057 | Lens attack 0.934 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.112. Lens bring a tight defence (rating 0.715, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Reims's projected output down. Data: built from Reims's last 59 games and Lens's last 59.
Result probabilities: Reims 26% | Draw 36% | Lens 38%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.80 | Draw 2.81 | Lens 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lens as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reims's last 10 home games and Lens's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reims 40% (last 10 home games) | Lens 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lens | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 16:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 26% | Draw 36% | Lens 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Reims 0.87 / Lens 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.883 / def 1.057 | Lens attack 0.934 / def 0.715 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Lens (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Lens xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Lens FAQs
What time does Reims vs Lens kick off?
Reims vs Lens kicked off at 16:05 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lens?
Reims 1 - 1 Lens.
Where is Reims vs Lens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Lens part of?
Reims vs Lens is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lens?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 26% chance of winning, Lens a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lens?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Reims and Lens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Reims vs Lens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.88x the league average against Lens's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lens's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 59 games and Lens's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
26%
3.80
36%
2.81
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Reims xG
Total xG
1.97
1.10
Lens xG
3.80
26%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.3 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Lens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Lens expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Reims and 1.10 for Lens, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Reims have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 21W 18D 20L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Lens's form line: 35W 14D 10L from 59 games, 2.02 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Lens are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reims.
Venue Form
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 7D 9L).
On the road, Lens have gone 12W 10D 7L from their last 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lens's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lens are on 1.61 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Lens in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Lens
Blended
Reims (Home) vs Lens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Blended
Lens
Blended
❓ Reims vs Lens Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Lens in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 21W 18D 20L in their last 59 games (1.37 PPG), while Lens have gone 35W 14D 10L in their last 59 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lens away?
Reims's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.59 PPG; Lens away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Reims or Lens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lens in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 11 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Reims's record when hosting Lens specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Reims
2
Draws
5
Lens
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Lens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lens?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 1, Lens have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2025: Lens 0-2 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Lens?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 48%, Lens 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Reims) and 41% (Lens).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Lens in 45%; Lens in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Lens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Lens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Reims's recent matches and 45% of Lens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Lens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Reims's recent games and 41% of Lens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Reims's recent matches and 62% of Lens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Lens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 22, as Reims and Lens drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.87 xG and Lens 1.10 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Lens attack 0.93 / defence 0.71, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 26% | Draw 36% | Lens 38%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Lens 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Lens's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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