Reims 1-1 Lens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Lens (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Reims face Lens.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Reims welcome Lens to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 16:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Reims — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lens stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lens have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lens — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lens have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Reims.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Lens winning.
It is worth noting that Lens have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lens trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 51% versus Lens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Lens 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 0.87 xG and Lens 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.883 / defence 1.057 | Lens attack 0.934 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.112. Lens's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Reims games / 59 Lens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 26% | Draw 36% | Lens 38%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Lens 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lens as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Lens 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lens | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 26% | Draw 36% | Lens 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Reims 0.87 / Lens 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.883 / def 1.057 | Lens attack 0.934 / def 0.715 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Lens (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Lens xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Lens kick off?
Reims vs Lens kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lens?
Reims 1 - 1 Lens.
Where is Reims vs Lens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Lens part of?
Reims vs Lens is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lens?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 26% chance of winning, Lens a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lens?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Reims and Lens will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Lens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lens?
Record (5 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 1 | Lens 4W.
What form are Reims and Lens in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Lens (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.88x the league average against Lens's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lens's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
26%
3.80
36%
2.81
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Reims xG
Total xG
1.97
1.10
Lens xG
3.80
26%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.3 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Lens expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Reims and 1.10 for Lens, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Reims have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 21W 18D 20L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lens's form line: 35W 14D 10L from 59 games, 2.02 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Lens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lens are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reims.
Venue Form
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.59 PPG from 29 outings (13W 7D 9L).
On the road, Lens have gone 12W 10D 7L from 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lens's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lens are on 1.61 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Lens in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Lens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Lens in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 21W 18D 20L in their last 59 games (1.37 PPG), while Lens have gone 35W 14D 10L in their last 59 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lens away?
Reims's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.59 PPG; Lens away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Reims or Lens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lens in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Reims's record when hosting Lens specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Reims
2
Draws
5
Lens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lens?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Lens have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lens last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Lens 0-2 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Lens?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 48%, Lens 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Reims) and 41% (Lens).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Lens in 45%; Lens in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Lens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Reims's recent matches and 45% of Lens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Lens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Reims's recent games and 41% of Lens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lens tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lens in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Lens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 22, as Reims and Lens drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.87 xG and Lens 1.10 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Lens attack 0.93 / defence 0.71, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 26% | Draw 36% | Lens 38%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Lens 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Lens's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.