Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris Saint Germain at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Paris Saint Germain face Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Toulouse travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1 (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Paris Saint Germain — last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Paris Saint Germain have gone 5W 5D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Paris Saint Germain at 2.00 PPG versus Toulouse's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Paris Saint Germain have won 2, Toulouse 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Toulouse — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 61% versus Toulouse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 67% | Toulouse 59%). Note also that Toulouse surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Paris Saint Germain recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.71 xG and Toulouse 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.409 / defence 1.067 | Toulouse attack 1.036 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.397. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack rating of 1.409 — their 1.71 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Paris Saint Germain's last 69 games and Toulouse's last 70.
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 41% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 34%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 2.41 | Draw 4.16 | Toulouse 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris Saint Germain 100% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 33 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 41% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.71 / Toulouse 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.409 / def 1.067 | Toulouse attack 1.036 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Toulouse xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Paris Saint Germain 1 - 3 Toulouse.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 33) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 41% chance of winning, Toulouse a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris Saint Germain's last 69 games and Toulouse's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
41%
2.41
24%
4.16
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.25
1.54
Toulouse xG
2.41
41%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.54 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 47W 14D 8L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 23W 18D 28L from 69 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.99 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 2.11 PPG from their last 35 home games (22W 8D 5L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 14W 6D 15L from their last 35 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.29 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
Paris Saint Germain (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 47W 14D 8L in their last 69 games (2.25 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 23W 18D 28L in their last 69 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Toulouse away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.11 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Toulouse in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Aug 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won Toulouse 0-3 Paris Saint Germain.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 69%, Toulouse 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Paris Saint Germain and 63% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 51% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 63% of Toulouse's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 71% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Paris Saint Germain.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Paris Saint Germain 1-3 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.71 xG and Toulouse 1.54 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.41 / defence 1.07 against Toulouse attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 41% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 34%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 67%, Toulouse 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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