Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Nice travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Paris Saint Germain have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 3.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Parc des Princes this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nice — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 0, Nice 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Nice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Nice trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 54% versus Nice 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 65% | Nice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.53 xG and Nice 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.313 / defence 0.761 | Nice attack 0.807 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.479. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Paris Saint Germain's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Paris Saint Germain games / 46 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 52% | Draw 26% | Nice 22%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Nice 4.55. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Paris Saint Germain 70% | Nice 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 52% | Draw 26% | Nice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.53 / Nice 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.313 / def 0.761 | Nice attack 0.807 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Nice xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Nice kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nice kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Paris Saint Germain 2 - 1 Nice.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nice is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 52% chance of winning, Nice a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
Record (2 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 0W | Draws 1 | Nice 1W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nice in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Nice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.31) and Nice's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.80
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.44
0.91
Nice xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
5%
21.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.91 for Nice, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris Saint Germain come into this having played 46 games, going 33W 9D 4L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.63 PPG from 46 outings (22W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Nice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Paris Saint Germain's home form reads 18W 4D 0L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (11W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.24 scored and 0.98 conceded. Paris Saint Germain's scoring rate against Nice's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nice in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 33W 9D 4L in their last 46 games (2.35 PPG), while Nice have gone 22W 9D 15L in their last 46 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Nice away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.64 PPG; Nice away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Nice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Nice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Nice 0-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 54%, Nice 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Paris Saint Germain) and 41% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Nice in 41%; Nice in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 32% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Paris Saint Germain's recent games and 41% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Nice tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Nice in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Nice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Nice 2-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.53 xG and Nice 0.91 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.31 / defence 0.76 against Nice attack 0.81 / defence 0.81, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 52% | Draw 26% | Nice 22%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 65%, Nice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Nice's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.63. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.