Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain and Lille meet at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Paris Saint Germain's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 5W 0D 0L at Parc des Princes — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Paris Saint Germain are significantly better at Parc des Princes than their overall form suggests.
Lille have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Paris Saint Germain's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Lille's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lille in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Paris Saint Germain — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Lille — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 54% versus Lille 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 64% | Lille 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.88 xG and Lille 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.295 / defence 0.978 | Lille attack 0.776 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.210. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Paris Saint Germain games / 11 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 57% | Draw 28% | Lille 15%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Lille 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 60% | Lille 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 57% | Draw 28% | Lille 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.88 / Lille 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.295 / def 0.978 | Lille attack 0.776 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Lille xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Lille kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Lille?
Paris Saint Germain 2 - 1 Lille.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Lille part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Lille is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 57% chance of winning, Lille a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Lille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Lille in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Lille (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Paris Saint Germain's attack at 1.29x the league average against Lille's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.78x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
57%
1.76
28%
3.52
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.80
0.92
Lille xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
44.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.92 for Lille, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Lille?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.55 PPG on a 9W 1D 1L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille's form line: 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lille.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.55 PPG overall — Paris Saint Germain are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lille have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 64%.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Lille in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 9W 1D 1L in their last 11 games (2.55 PPG), while Lille have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Lille away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 3.00 PPG; Lille away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lille in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-7 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
0
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 8, Lille have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Lille?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 60%, Lille 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Paris Saint Germain and 40% for Lille. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lille in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 60% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 40% of Lille's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Lille tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lille in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Lille 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Lille 2-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.88 xG and Lille 0.92 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.29 / defence 0.98 against Lille attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 57% | Draw 28% | Lille 15%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 64%, Lille 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lille (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.