Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Paris Saint Germain at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Estac Troyes travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris Saint Germain stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Parc des Princes, Paris Saint Germain have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Princes. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Paris Saint Germain are significantly better at Parc des Princes than their overall form suggests.
Estac Troyes — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Paris Saint Germain are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Paris Saint Germain, 0 for Estac Troyes and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 60% versus Estac Troyes 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 63% | Estac Troyes 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.20 xG and Estac Troyes 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.354 / defence 0.823 | Estac Troyes attack 0.714 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.237. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Paris Saint Germain's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Paris Saint Germain games / 35 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 71% | Draw 18% | Estac Troyes 11%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Estac Troyes 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Paris Saint Germain 40% | Estac Troyes 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 71% | Draw 18% | Estac Troyes 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 46% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.20 / Estac Troyes 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.354 / def 0.823 | Estac Troyes attack 0.714 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Estac Troyes xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?
Paris Saint Germain 2 - 2 Estac Troyes.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 71% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 1W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.54
11%
9.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.92
0.73
Estac Troyes xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
9.15
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
11%
9.00
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
1%
82.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.73 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Paris Saint Germain come into this having played 35 games, going 24W 7D 4L for 2.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 1.03 PPG from 35 outings (9W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Paris Saint Germain's home form reads 15W 2D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.76 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.26 PPG overall — Paris Saint Germain are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.82 points per game from 17 outings (4W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 0.94 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 24W 7D 4L in their last 35 games (2.26 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 9W 9D 17L in their last 35 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Estac Troyes away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.76 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 53%, Estac Troyes 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Paris Saint Germain) and 47% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 53% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 47% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 36, as Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.20 xG and Estac Troyes 0.73 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Estac Troyes outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.35 / defence 0.82 against Estac Troyes attack 0.71 / defence 1.34, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 71% | Draw 18% | Estac Troyes 11%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 63%, Estac Troyes 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.