Paris FC 1-0 Nice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Nice at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Paris FC face Nice.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Paris FC and Nice meet at Stade Jean Bouin in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Paris FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Paris FC have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Nice (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Nice have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Paris FC 1–1 Nice — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Nice half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 53% versus Nice 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 51% | Nice 58%). Note also that Nice surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Paris FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.41 xG and Nice 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.720 / defence 1.499 | Nice attack 1.036 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.197. Paris FC's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.41. Nice's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Paris FC's projected output up. Paris FC's defence rating of 1.499 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nice's projected output up. Data: built from Paris FC's last 23 games and Nice's last 57.

Result probabilities: Paris FC 29% | Draw 23% | Nice 48%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 3.41 | Draw 4.43 | Nice 2.08. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.41 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Paris FC's last 10 home games and Nice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Nice 70% (last 10 away games).

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