Paris FC vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Jean Bouin plays host to Paris FC versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Paris FC haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Jean Bouin — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Auxerre have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Auxerre haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Paris FC, 1.60 for Auxerre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Paris FC 1W, Auxerre 2W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 62% versus Auxerre 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 56% | Auxerre 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.62 xG and Auxerre 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.092 / defence 0.986 | Auxerre attack 0.998 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.329. Data: 34 Paris FC games / 34 Auxerre games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 43% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 30%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Auxerre 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 40% | Auxerre 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Jean Bouin • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 43% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Paris FC 1.62 / Auxerre 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.092 / def 0.986 | Auxerre attack 0.998 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Auxerre xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Auxerre kick off?
Paris FC vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stade Jean Bouin.
Where is Paris FC vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Bouin.
What competition is Paris FC vs Auxerre part of?
Paris FC vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 43% chance of winning, Auxerre a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Paris FC and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Auxerre?
Record (6 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 3 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Paris FC and Auxerre in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.00x) against Paris FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.71
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.92
1.31
Auxerre xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.31 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Paris FC's recent record stands at 11W 11D 12L from 34 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. Paris FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 16L across 34 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. Auxerre haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Paris FC against 1.00 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Paris FC have managed 7W 4D 6L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Pre-Season
Auxerre
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 8W 10D 16L in their last 34 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Auxerre away?
Paris FC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.47 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Paris FC
3
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 53%, Auxerre 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Paris FC) and 41% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Paris FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Auxerre in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Paris FC's recent matches and 47% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Paris FC's recent games and 41% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Auxerre tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.