Nice 0-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nice at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Metz make the trip to Allianz Riviera to face Nice in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nice have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 games at Allianz Riviera this term (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Metz (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Metz have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Nice. A 1.10 PPG lead over Metz (1.70 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 43% versus Metz 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 57% | Metz 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.71 xG and Metz 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.984 / defence 1.146 | Metz attack 0.795 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.190. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Nice games / 14 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 49% | Draw 29% | Metz 21%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Metz 4.76. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 57% | Metz 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 49% | Draw 29% | Metz 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Nice 1.71 / Metz 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.984 / def 1.146 | Metz attack 0.795 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Nice (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Metz xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Metz kick off?
Nice vs Metz kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Metz?
Nice 0 - 1 Metz.
Where is Nice vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Metz part of?
Nice vs Metz is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 49% chance of winning, Metz a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nice and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Metz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nice and Metz in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Metz (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nice's attack rating (0.98) and Metz's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.80x) against Nice's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.40
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Nice xG
Total xG
2.79
1.08
Metz xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
4%
25.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Nice and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Nice and 1.08 for Metz, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nice's recent record stands at 8W 3D 3L from 14 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 7L across 14 games — 0.64 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Metz heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nice have managed 3W 3D 1L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nice are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.14 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metz in 64%.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Metz in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 8W 3D 3L in their last 14 games (1.93 PPG), while Metz have gone 1W 6D 7L in their last 14 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Metz away?
Nice's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.71 PPG; Metz away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Nice or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Metz in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nice
1
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Metz have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Nice 0-0 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Metz?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 57%, Metz 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Nice and 71% for Metz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 29% of games; Metz in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Nice's games and 57% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Nice's matches and 71% of Metz's.
Do Nice and Metz tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Metz in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Metz defy the odds to beat Nice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Nice 0-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.71 xG and Metz 1.08 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nice fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Metz attack 0.80 / defence 1.35, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 49% | Draw 29% | Metz 21%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Metz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 57%, Metz 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metz's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with Metz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.