Nice 1-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Clermont Foot travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nice's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Allianz Riviera this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Clermont Foot have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Clermont Foot's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nice at 1.40 PPG versus Clermont Foot's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nice have won 1, Clermont Foot 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 45% versus Clermont Foot 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 44% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 0.97 xG and Clermont Foot 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.902 / defence 0.836 | Clermont Foot attack 0.910 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.247. Clermont Foot's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 69 Nice games / 69 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 34% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 33%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Clermont Foot 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Nice 40% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 34% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Nice 0.97 / Clermont Foot 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.902 / def 0.836 | Clermont Foot attack 0.910 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Nice (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Clermont Foot xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Nice vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Nice 1 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Nice vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Clermont Foot part of?
Nice vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 34% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Nice and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Clermont Foot?
Record (3 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 2W.
What form are Nice and Clermont Foot in?
Nice (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
34%
2.94
33%
3.01
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Nice xG
Total xG
1.92
0.95
Clermont Foot xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Nice and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Nice and 0.95 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice's recent record stands at 31W 19D 19L from 69 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 32L across 69 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nice have managed 15W 10D 9L from 34 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 11W 7D 16L across 34 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.03 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 31W 19D 19L in their last 69 games (1.62 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 21W 16D 32L in their last 69 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Clermont Foot away?
Nice's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.62 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Nice or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Nice's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nice
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Nice 0-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 47%, Clermont Foot 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nice) and 41% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 32% of games; Clermont Foot in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Nice's recent matches and 41% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nice's recent games and 41% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Nice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Nice 1-2 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 0.97 xG and Clermont Foot 0.95 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Clermont Foot outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Clermont Foot attack 0.91 / defence 0.76, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 34% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 33%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 44%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.