Montpellier 1-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Montpellier at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Montpellier vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Montpellier welcome Clermont Foot to Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Montpellier have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Montpellier 0.90 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Montpellier register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Clermont Foot in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Montpellier, 1 for Clermont Foot and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Montpellier winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 54% versus Clermont Foot 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 64% | Clermont Foot 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.31 xG and Clermont Foot 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.988 / defence 1.129 | Clermont Foot attack 0.963 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.076. Data: 50 Montpellier games / 50 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 37% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 31%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Clermont Foot 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 60% | Clermont Foot 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 37% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Montpellier 1.31 / Clermont Foot 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.988 / def 1.129 | Clermont Foot attack 0.963 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Clermont Foot xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Montpellier vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Montpellier 1 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Montpellier vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Clermont Foot part of?
Montpellier vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 37% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Montpellier and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Montpellier 2W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Montpellier and Clermont Foot in?
Montpellier (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 0.99x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
37%
2.67
32%
3.12
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.48
1.17
Clermont Foot xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.17 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Montpellier have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 18W 9D 23L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 19W 11D 20L from 50 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Montpellier on 1.26 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Montpellier have posted 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 9W 7D 8L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Montpellier are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.06 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 18W 9D 23L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.12 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Montpellier and Clermont Foot runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Montpellier's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Montpellier
4
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Clermont Foot?
From 8 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Montpellier 1-2 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 62%, Clermont Foot 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Montpellier) and 50% (Clermont Foot). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Montpellier's games and 62% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Montpellier's matches and 50% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Montpellier and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Montpellier and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 8, as Montpellier and Clermont Foot drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.31 xG and Clermont Foot 1.17 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.99 / defence 1.13 against Clermont Foot attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 37% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 31%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 64%, Clermont Foot 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Montpellier 1.26 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.