Monaco 3-2 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Monaco (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Monaco face Stade Brestois 29.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Stade Brestois 29 travel to Stade Louis-II to take on Monaco in Ligue 1 (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Monaco stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Monaco's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Stade Brestois 29 away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Monaco have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Monaco hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 0 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Monaco 2–0 Stade Brestois 29 — a Monaco win.
The head-to-head data gives Monaco an edge — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Monaco trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 56% versus Stade Brestois 29 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 60% | Stade Brestois 29 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.60 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.865 / defence 0.794 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.873 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.408. Stade Brestois 29's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monaco's projected output up. Monaco have a tight defence (rating 0.794), which is pulling Stade Brestois 29's projected output down. Data: built from Monaco's last 45 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 45.
Result probabilities: Monaco 52% | Draw 26% | Stade Brestois 29 22%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.94 | Draw 3.86 | Stade Brestois 29 4.45. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Monaco's last 10 home games and Stade Brestois 29's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Monaco 40% (last 10 home games) | Stade Brestois 29 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 52% | Draw 26% | Stade Brestois 29 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Monaco 1.60 / Stade Brestois 29 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.865 / def 0.794 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.873 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Monaco (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Stade Brestois 29 xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 FAQs
What time does Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29?
Monaco 3 - 2 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 52% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Monaco and Stade Brestois 29 will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monaco's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Stade Brestois 29's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Monaco's last 45 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.86
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.58
0.98
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
5%
22.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Monaco and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Monaco and 0.98 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Monaco have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 27W 9D 9L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Stade Brestois 29's form line: 21W 11D 13L from 45 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 2.00 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 22 home games (12W 5D 5L).
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 10W 3D 9L from their last 22 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Monaco are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.49 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Stade Brestois 29 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Monaco (Home) vs Stade Brestois 29 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monaco
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 Form FAQs
What form are Monaco and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 27W 9D 9L in their last 45 games (2.00 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 11D 13L in their last 45 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Monaco's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.86 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Monaco or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Monaco's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Monaco
0
Draws
3
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Stade Brestois 29?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Monaco have won 7, Stade Brestois 29 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Monaco 2-0 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Stade Brestois 29?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 46%, Stade Brestois 29 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Monaco) and 54% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monaco and Stade Brestois 29 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Monaco's recent matches and 46% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Monaco and Stade Brestois 29 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Monaco's recent games and 54% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Stade Brestois 29 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Monaco's recent matches and 73% of Stade Brestois 29's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Stade Brestois 29 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Stade Brestois 29 3-2 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.60 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.98 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.86 / defence 0.79 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 52% | Draw 26% | Stade Brestois 29 22%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 60%, Stade Brestois 29 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 2.00 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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