Monaco 0-0 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Lorient encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lorient make the trip to Stade Louis II to face Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Monaco (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco at Stade Louis II this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lorient's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lorient away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Monaco. A 1.30 PPG lead over Lorient (1.80 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Monaco 0W, Lorient 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Lorient winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Monaco goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lorient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 48% versus Lorient 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 52% | Lorient 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 2.96 xG and Lorient 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.357 / defence 0.931 | Lorient attack 0.718 / defence 1.820. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.171. Monaco carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 2.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lorient bring a strong defensive rating of 1.820 — this is suppressing Monaco's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Monaco games / 23 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 81% | Draw 12% | Lorient 7%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.23 | Draw 8.33 | Lorient 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 50% | Lorient 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 81% | Draw 12% | Lorient 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 51% | xG Monaco 2.96 / Lorient 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.357 / def 0.931 | Lorient attack 0.718 / def 1.820 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Monaco (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Lorient xG
51%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Lorient kick off?
Monaco vs Lorient kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Lorient?
Monaco 0 - 0 Lorient.
Where is Monaco vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Lorient part of?
Monaco vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 81% chance of winning, Lorient a 7% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Monaco and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Lorient?
Record (1 meetings): Monaco 0W | Draws 0 | Lorient 1W.
What form are Monaco and Lorient in?
Monaco (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Lorient (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Monaco's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Lorient's defensive record (1.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.96. Flip it around — Lorient's attack (0.72x) against Monaco's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
81%
1.23
12%
8.33
7%
14.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
Monaco xG
Total xG
3.74
0.78
Lorient xG
1.23
81%
Home win
8.33
12%
Draw
14.47
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
5%
19.22
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Monaco and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Monaco and 0.78 for Lorient, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Lorient?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 10W 6D 7L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lorient's form line: 4W 8D 11L from 23 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lorient.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Monaco have posted 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (7W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Monaco are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lorient have gone 0W 4D 8L from 12 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lorient's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monaco are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 0.87 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Lorient
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Lorient in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Lorient have gone 4W 8D 11L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Lorient away?
Monaco's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 2.00 PPG; Lorient away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lorient have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lorient — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Monaco
4
Draws
3
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Lorient?
From 8 meetings on record, Monaco have won 1, Lorient have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Monaco 1-3 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Lorient?
Lorient have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 50%, Lorient 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Monaco) and 58% (Lorient). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lorient in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Lorient?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Monaco's games and 67% of Lorient's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Monaco's matches and 58% of Lorient's.
Do Monaco and Lorient tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Lorient in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Monaco's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco and Lorient finished level at 0-0 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 2.96 xG and Lorient 0.78 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Monaco fell 3.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.36 / defence 0.93 against Lorient attack 0.72 / defence 1.82, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 81% | Draw 12% | Lorient 7%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 52%, Lorient 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lorient's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.