Metz 1-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Metz face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lille travel to Stade Saint-Symphorien to take on Metz in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Metz have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Metz's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Lille — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lille's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Metz 1.30 PPG, Lille 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Metz have won 0, Lille 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Metz 0–2 Lille — a Lille win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 47% versus Lille 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 43% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.06 xG and Lille 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.862 / defence 1.209 | Lille attack 0.754 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.334. Lille's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Metz's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lille's projected output up. Data: built from Metz's last 30 games and Lille's last 68.
Result probabilities: Metz 31% | Draw 30% | Lille 39%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.19 | Draw 3.39 | Lille 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Metz's last 10 home games and Lille's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Metz 50% (last 10 home games) | Lille 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 31% | Draw 30% | Lille 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Metz 1.06 / Lille 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.862 / def 1.209 | Lille attack 0.754 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Lille (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lille xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Metz vs Lille FAQs
What time does Metz vs Lille kick off?
Metz vs Lille kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Lille?
Metz 1 - 2 Lille.
Where is Metz vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Lille part of?
Metz vs Lille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 31% chance of winning, Lille a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Metz and Lille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Metz vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Metz's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Metz's last 30 games and Lille's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
31%
3.19
30%
3.39
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Metz xG
Total xG
2.27
1.22
Lille xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Metz vs Lille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Metz and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Metz and 1.22 for Lille, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Metz have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 28W 17D 23L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Lille's form line: 33W 20D 15L from 68 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 1.49 PPG, Lille on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Metz have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 33 home games (13W 10D 10L).
On the road, Lille have gone 9W 12D 12L from their last 33 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.59 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
Metz (Home) vs Lille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Metz
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Metz vs Lille Form FAQs
What form are Metz and Lille in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 28W 17D 23L in their last 68 games (1.49 PPG), while Lille have gone 33W 20D 15L in their last 68 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Lille away?
Metz's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.48 PPG; Lille away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Metz or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lille in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lille won Lille 6-1 Metz.
Metz's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Metz
3
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Metz vs Lille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Lille?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Metz have won 0, Lille have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Lille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: Metz 0-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 42%, Lille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Metz) and 36% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Lille in 33%; Metz have failed to score in 30% of games; Lille in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Metz vs Lille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Metz and Lille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Metz's recent matches and 52% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Metz and Lille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Metz's recent games and 36% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Lille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Metz's recent matches and 61% of Lille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Metz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Metz 1-2 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.06 xG and Lille 1.22 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against Lille attack 0.75 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 31% | Draw 30% | Lille 39%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 43%, Lille 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.49 PPG, Lille 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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